Financial Independence and Early Retirement- FIRE: 2 Types- Fat & Lean!

We have discussed on how to defuse the retirement bomb in our earlier posts on the same- Link

Today, let us start a new series on FIRE- Financial Independence & Early Retirement. FIRE is pretty different from normal retirement that everyone has to face eventually- naturally or forcefully between 50-65 yrs of age.

One may FIRE as early as 30 yrs of age or as late as 45 yrs of age. In Western countries, many people have actually FIREd at 30 yrs or even younger from their own money (Silicon valley, wall street guys etc).

FIRE is living the life on your terms. It is the end of slavery that was started by colonisers like UK and continued by MNC corporations (East India Company was a big MNC company of its time)!

Many people can achieve FIRE without getting rich actually. FIRE is a function of passive income and annual expenses. So, reducing expenses significantly and building passive income sources can allow you to FIRE quite early than you can think of! That is important only if you believe that your time is best spent on activities that you want to do, and not on earning daily bread!

FIRE is a hot topic globally now a days. In International forums, you can find 25 yr old middle class youth in average jobs detailing their FIRE plans. For example, that their current net-worth is 100k USD, they will save 20k USD per year, and will FIRE by 42 yrs of age etc etc.

In India, FIRE movement is still in early stages. Stock markets are anyway called satta bazaar in India! And, middle class is supposed to work their asses off to show off their assets (high end cars, foreign trips, flats etc) to their relatives irrespective of the fact whether they are enjoying their life or not!

Most working people may not look at FIRE at all or may look at FIRE as one single category. In real life, FIRE is of 2 types. These two are pretty different from each other-

  1. Lean FIRE- This is the frugal/minimalistic approach to FIRE, where the key objective is to leave the slavery ASAP and be the master of their own time. For these category of people, it doesn’t matter if they have to use public transport or a low end car, whether they vacation at a 5 star hotel or an average one. Their time and freedom at the earliest possible age is most important to them!
  2. Fat FIRE– This is the approach where people plan to live the rest of their life with a luxuriois lifestyle (lavish homes, cars etc). They may delay the FIRE age by 10 or more years to achieve the required networth. For them, a great lifestyle is more important than their time and independence!

Both these approaches are actually opposite ends of the spectrum. It is a matter of personal choice which approach you want to go with. There is no right and wrong. The corpus and approach required for each type is obviously different as well.

Do remember that FIRE is different from normal retirement. The number of years without active income may be double than the number of years in normal retirement. The working lifespan is much shorter as well.

Can you achieve FIRE? Yes, you can! Where there is a will, there is a way!

Happy Investing

Vijay

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Interesting Advice on Bangalore Real estate!

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Nifty target of 20,000 by…

“Indian GDP will double in coming decade”

“India is the fastest growing economy and the best place to invest on this Earth”

“This will be the biggest and longest bull rally”

Well, all these are Bull shit statements used by TV Cartoon channels and Experts to trap retail investors.

  1. India will become 3rd biggest economy- Well, a slum cluster may have more earning than your household. This doesn’t mean you should invest in that slum cluster. Right? GDP per capita in India will still remain pretty low, and the economy size = GDP per capita X Population. So, with increasing population for coming decades, we will for sure become the biggest economy in the world one day
  2. India is the fastest growing economy (vs US, China etc)- Over last 10 yrs, India has grown much faster than US & China. But if you had invested in Amazon/Alphabet/Alibaba etc you would have become a lot more richer than investing in Indian cos. US mkts have out-performed Indian mkts by a big margin over last 10 yrs. US cos are innovative. They have Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook. What have we got here?
  3. Big bull rally- Another bull shit statement. Any macro event at political or cross country level and everyone will start selling from 9 AM sharp. Nifty itself may hit a lower circuit. Well, have you thought about that? Also, note that pharma sector is in bear market for last 1 year. So, bear market is also there in the current market itself.

The fact is one invests in companies and not countries. Many big companies in India derive more than 60% of their profits from developed countries e.g. Big pharma cos, Tata Motors, IT cos etc. Their growth/profits have nothing to do with India or its Prime Minister. Google (Alphabet) flourished while Yahoo perished. A company’s growth follows its revenue and profits. These revenue and profits may or may not be linked to the country’s growth.

The world is more connected than ever today. Income in-equality is at all time high and increasing. So, we may have more Apple phones sold in India in coming decade or so than in USA. India may become the biggest market in world for Apple, Google, Facebook in 2030. Most of us spend a large chunk of our money on foreign/un-listed cos stuff- Apple, Hyundai, Audi, Google, Facebook- They are all going to make big money from India’s growth story!

Having said this, in India, there are sectors like FMCG, Housing, Infra, Banking which are a direct play on Indian growth story. However, you need to select stocks carefully in these sectors at a fair valuation to make wealth. If you pick wrong stocks, you will lose money irrespective of country’s GDP growth rate. Many infra cos are still 50-80% down from 2007 peak while GDP has doubled.

Nobody created wealth from listening to TV experts on Cartoon channels! This is the No.1 rule in Indian market!

Happy Investing!

Vijay

This is not an Investment advise. Please do your own research before selling or buying a stock!

 

Should Children pay for their parents retirement?

Well, my this tweet triggered a hornet nest!

“Retirement corpus should be prioritized over children’s education. Education loans are available but nobody will give you loan for retirement!”

Followed by this one

“It is not about love. It is about responsibility. You are responsible for your own retirement. Why suck your kids income for that?”

While many people agreed to the same, many did not. Some accused of me being American etc!

Well, the world has changed a lot in last 30-40 years. Let us compare some differences!

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The world was a different place a few decades back. Retirement was not a big thing. Most people lived till 70 yrs only, and many were in govt jobs- that were guaranteed till 60 yr of age with pension + medical cover. Kids used to go to govt colleges- no education loan. Medical expenses were not big. There was no MRI, no knee replacement. No big corporate hospitals.

Welcome to the 2020s

  1. The medical expenses are big post retirement. Out-patient expenses (diagnostics, consultation, pharmacy) are not covered by any insurance. Even for in-patient insurance, the companies try not to insure you post 70 yrs of age
  2. You may have to live 30-40 yrs after leaving your job. Today, can you live 3 years without your salary?
  3. Your kids will have their own expenses- education loan EMI, home loan EMI, car EMI. They may do PHD or other higher studies- and may start real earnings after 35 years of age, or they may not earn well! – You expect these kids to give you monthly cheque. Add another EMI? and medical expenses? That’s fine if you do, but it may be Impossible for them to do so. When they took their education loan, they may not have factored your EMI too!
  4. You know that you will retire. That there will be big medical expenses. Is it not your responsibility to invest and build your own retirement corpus? 

You still expect them to pay you a monthly cheque for 30 years? Also, remember. when you are 90 yrs old, your kids may also be retired/60 yrs old.

Don’t mix love & money!

Do let me know your thoughts in the comments section or by mailing us at wealthparkadvisors@gmail.com

Also, do read our post on how to defuse the retirement bomb. Link

Vijay

How to make 10 crores from 1 lakh in Stock market?

Hi Guys,

Sorry for writing a post after a long gap of 3 months. I am a lazy bum! Especially, since am financially retired. Will try to post frequently from now on 🙂

Anyways, you must be curious on how to make 10 crores from 1 lakh? Looks pretty difficult?

Broadly, there are 3 ways-

 

1. The first way- SIP for 30 years (assuming 15% annual return)

Start with 1 lakh in Mutual funds, add 1 lakh every year +10% increment/year, so 1.1 lakh in second year, 1.21 lakh in 3rd year, 1.33 lakhs in 4th year and so on.

You will reach 10 crores+ by end of 30th year, and 45-50 crores by 40th year!

Here, is the graph of the same-

Picture1.png

Just 15% growth rate plus annual SIP of just 1 lakh (SIP increasing at 10% every year) can enable you to have 40-50 crores in 40 yrs! Isn’t that amazing?

How to do this?– Achieving 15% over next 30-40 years may be possible by carefully selecting good mutual funds and going by direct route. However, it is entirely possible, that the annual growth rate of mutual funds falls to 8-10% after a decade, and thus it may lead to short fall in the required corpus. Nothing is guaranteed in the financial markets. 15% looks easy today, it may look very difficult 10 years from now. 

Even if you achieve this target, you will be an old man/woman by then! What will you do with so much money at 70 yrs of age? Take it to the graveyard? Also, note that due to inflation, the real value of 10 crores will be equivalent to what 1 or 2 crores is today. In 30 years, 10 crores will not be a large sum of money as it appears today!

Is there a faster way? So that you can enjoy the fruits of your wealth as well? Let us come to the second way

2) The second way- Achieve 10 crores target in 15 years-

We need to increase the seed capital to 5 lakhs and that too in Direct stocks with an objective of 25% Annual rate of return. Also, increase the annual SIP to 5 lakh which is again increasing at 10% every year- so 5.5 lakhs addition in 2nd year, 6.1 lakhs addition in 3rd year and so on.

You will achieve 10 crores target by end of 15th year!!! And, 30+ crores by 20th year

Here is the graph of the same-

Picture2.png

This will enable many of you to achieve 10 crores target by middle age. Life begins at 50!

So, the question is how to implement the above and create wealth.

Achieving 25% annual growth rate for 15 years is entirely possible but not easy. You will need to directly invest in stocks, do research, develop conviction, and withstand the volatility. Your portfolio may fall 50% or even 70% during bear markets.

Also note, that in real life, returns are not linear. To achieve 25% annual growth rate, you will need to achieve 100%+ returns in good years. There will be many bad or sideways years as well.

This article lists the initial few steps before you start investing in stock markets. Do read this article

In direct stock investing, if you are in wrong stocks, you can lose your entire capital. And, if you are in right stocks, you can even achieve 100 crores in 10 years. So, choose wisely!

3. The third way- Future and Options (Derivative trading)

Yes, you can make huge money from Futures and Options. Not just 10 crores, but 100 crores and that too within 10 years.

I have written a detailed article on how to mint money from Futures and Options. Here is the Link for the same. Please read at your own leisure

Happy Investing!

Vijay

These are personal views of the author and is not an investment advise. Please do your own research or consult your investment advisor before investing your hard earned money
Disclosure: The author is 100% invested in direct stocks. He does not hold any mutual funds. He is a SEBI registered Investment Advisor and owner of the site WealthPark.org 

 

10 types of Investors in Indian markets!

From my real life experiences-

  1. The Gold class (Silent on Twitter, social media)– Age group 38-55 yrs- 100-200 crores in stocks. Self made wealth. Did 10-100x in few stocks. Investing since 2003 or earlier
  2. Honest beginner value investor (usually silent on Twitter)– 50-80% of assets in stocks, usually 28-35 yr old, made some wealth (50L-2cr) in last 3-5 yrs, looking at building 5-7 cr portfolio in 3-4 years and leaving job. Subscribes to Multiple advisory services
  3. Typical Twitter value investor-  Diverse age group, Asset allocation- 99% real estate (1-10cr), stocks- 1% – 1-10 lakhs. Whatsapp group name- Value investing. Discussion on- Intra-day trades, Futures, Options, Break-outs etc. Churns whole portfolio every week
  4. Smart Twitter value investor-  30-40 yr old, 50% asset allocation in stocks- Sells all portfolio in demonetisation time. But keeps tweeting about value investing. After demonetisation market picks up- RTs old tweets of old stocks (in reality- could not buy them again as they have run away before he could buy again)
  5. Beginner, 25 yr old- has no clue what stock market is about. Portfolio size 1-5 lakhs. Joins some groups etc to pass time. Primary motive from stock mkt- time pass & some thrill
  6. The SIP investor– 30-55 yr old. Invests through SIP in Mutual funds. Doesn’t have a clue about stocks. Looks at stocks that go 10x in awe. Beginning to invest in direct stocks
  7. The F&O trader/Broker- primarily gives tips on Nifty, Bank Nifty etc. Earns money via brokerage. Hasn’t made a penny in profits  (mostly losses) but portrays himself as a successful trader
  8. The Networked value investor- Has networks with good stock investors. Doesn’t have a clue about value investing. Gets stock picks from others and talks about them with everyone else
  9. The Sleepy value investor– a RARE breed-  Buys and holds 10-12 compounders for 3-5 years time frame (e.g pvt banks)
  10. The Break out value investor– One who thinks buying break outs and value investing is one and the same! A very common breed!

5 Steps to become rich by Investing in stock markets!

A lot of people buy mutual funds, invest in stocks, gamble in futures and options. But, very few become rich by investing in stock market. There are very few investors we know who became rich due to investing in stocks. Why is that? Why isn’t a common man able to create wealth in 10-15 years from stock market? The reason is simple. Most people do it the WRONG WAY.

Here are 5 steps to do it the Right way-

  1. Find the right businesses-Indian markets have 5800 listed companies and they are increasing in number every year. However, you will find both wealth destroyers like Unitech and wealth creators like HDFC bank on the stock market.You need to differentiate between a good business vs a bad business. A good management vs corrupt/poor management. Very fair valuations vs expensive valuations. Read this link on how to choose a stock
  2. Get Asset allocation right- A 70% return on 10% allocation changes your networth only by 7%. If you invest only 10 lakhs in stocks, while your total networth is 1 crore+, you are literally wasting your time. Read more about asset allocation here
  3. Stop trading in Futures & Options- Nithin Kamath used to trade in Futures and Options, and he is nearly a billionaire today. Not because trading made him money, but because his brokerage firm- Zerodha made him money. Read more about how you can make big from Futures & Options on this link
  4. Stop Financial Porn- Many Analysts and TV Channels keep tweeting and discussing RBI Rate cut or Budget implications. In last decade, HDFC Bank created wealth but ICICI bank did not- was it because of RBI policy or some Budget implications? A company doesn’t make higher sales and profits because what RBI gov or Finance minister will say tomorrow. Switch off the ANALysts who discuss such news daily. Period!
  5. Understand basics of accounting & Economics- Learn to differentiate between a secular business e.g. consumer, pvt banks vs cyclical business- e.g. Fertilisers. You can make wealth in both provided you understand it. Understand how economy functions. Many analysts who haven’t read economics ever- became bearish on Indian economy due to Demonetisation. However, WealthPark was the only advisory that was ultra-bullish on the economy due to demonetisation. Read more about what we said here– it is pretty simple stuff

Last but not the least. Keep it simple, silly. Finance & economics is pretty simple basic stuff. You don’t need big excel sheets to understand valuations of a company. Some one using lot of excel sheets is an indicator of his lack of understanding of basics in the first place. Similarly, in economics, you don’t need lot of data to understand the basic fact that demonetisation will help listed businesses both in short and long term.

Use less data, Use more Common Sense

Happy Investing

Vijay Pahwa

WealthPark